24 Storylines: ROY race will be wide open

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We’re counting down 24 key storylines heading into the 2024-25 NBA season. Our senior analysts will dissect a new topic each day as we help you get ready for opening night on Oct. 22.
Here is storyline No. 6:
Here’s why this season’s Kia Rookie of the Year race is wide open:
A good rule of thumb when trying to assess how open the Kia Rookie of the Year race might be in any NBA season is this: “Was there consensus on the No. 1 pick in the previous June’s Draft?”
Makes sense, right? When you’ve got a sure-fire, no-brainer top pick, that player will most likely demonstrate his value if not from Day 1 then certainly from Year 1. Every general manager or president of basketball operations who wins the lottery and spends that oh-so-coveted asset on his vision of the team’s future hopes he got the proverbial pick of the litter. Which is to say, the best player from that year’s class, a.k.a. Rookie of the Year.
Land a franchise player such as Patrick Ewing, Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan or even an 18-year-old LeBron James, and it seems reasonable to expect that guy to hit the league running and outshine all other newcomers. ROY? Most of those guys have MVP awards and Hall of Fame honors headed their way.
And yet … here’s a sobering statistic. Since the league went to its current Draft lottery format in 1986, there have been 38 No. 1 picks. Only 18 (46%) went on to win Rookie of the Year. Those franchise guys don’t come around very often.
If there was one in the 58 prospects chosen in the 2024 Draft, he has yet to reveal himself. There was no consensus No. 1. Nobody, before or since, has claimed that Atlanta’s Zaccharie Risacher, Washington’s Alex Sarr or Houston’s Reed Sheppard is this year’s Chris Webber, Allen Iverson or Victor Wembanyama.
This season’s rookie race could be more like 2021-22, when Toronto’s Scottie Barnes rose up from No. 4 to snag the award over the players chosen before him (Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green and Evan Mobley). The voting was close – Barnes with 378 points, Mobley with 363 – and it could go that way again next spring.
Remember, there are other factors that invariably play roles. Injuries top the list. Cunningham was a pretty sure No. 1 pick in 2021, but the Detroit guard got hurt and landed third for ROY. When Memphis’ Ja Morant took home the trophy in 2020, he got an assist from Zion Williamson – everybody’s automatic No. 1 in that class – when the New Orleans nose tackle appeared only 24 times.
Fit within a team’s rotation is another variable, as is the bosses’ ambitions for that rookie. When San Antonio’s Gregg Popovich again seemed disinterested in winning last season, it kept the ROY race between Victor Wembanyama and Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren surprisingly close for much of the year.
Then the Frenchman swept the 99 first-place and won the award handily.
There’s no Wemby in the Class of 2024, perhaps not even a Paolo Banchero (not a consensus No. 1 pick but a runaway ROY winner in 2022-23). Look for a lot of climbers and fallers in 2024-25 on the Kia Rookie Ladder.
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Steve Aschburner has written about the NBA since 1980. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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